An article from RNZ reports that confidence in the New Zealand housing market has surged to its highest level in 15 years.
Overview
The latest ASB Housing Confidence Survey shows 28 percent of respondents believe now is a good time to buy a property, the strongest reading since the survey began. RNZ This shift reflects recent reductions to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s official cash rate (OCR), now down to 2.25 percent, along with a rising number of homes on the market.
More than half of respondents expect mortgage rates to fall further (54 percent), and only one in ten expect rates to rise. Meanwhile, only a net 17 percent expect house prices to rise over the next year, indicating subdued price expectations amid high inventory.
According to Nick Tuffley, ASB’s chief economist, the combination of lower borrowing costs and abundant listings is creating rare conditions for buyers.
Insights
- The “buyers’ market” sentiment is the strongest in 15 years based on the ASB survey results.
- OCR has dropped sharply from 5.5 percent in July 2024 to 2.25 percent in November 2025, boosting mortgage affordability.
- Despite increased confidence, only a minority expect house prices to rise soon, reflecting caution amid elevated supply.
- Economists forecast a gradual price rise over 2026 as stock diminishes and sales turnover increases, but no return to double-digit growth.
Our Thoughts
The current New Zealand housing market feels like a reset moment. After years of steep price inflation, the confluence of lower interest rates, increased listings, and cautious buyer expectations have temporarily shifted power toward buyers. This offers an opportunity for prospective home-owners to enter the market under more favourable conditions than many have experienced in recent times.
However, the subdued expectation for price rises suggests many are waiting to see if the trend sticks. If stock levels ease and economic fundamentals strengthen in 2026, sellers may gradually regain leverage, and modest price growth could return.
This environment might benefit first-home buyers and those waiting for a dip more than property speculators seeking big short-term gains. Nonetheless, it is not yet clear whether this is the start of a stable long-term trend or a temporary lull, market watchers and buyers alike would do well to keep a close eye on interest rates, inventory levels, and broader economic conditions.
Our Questions for You
- If you were looking to buy a home now, would this “buyers’ market” influence you to act sooner rather than later?
- Do you think the renewed confidence reflects a genuine, sustained market shift, or just a temporary blip?
- How might local dynamics in your region, for instance Tauranga or Bay of Plenty, differ from the national picture, and what should buyers watch for locally?
