As reported by RNZ, the Deloitte and Chapman Tripp Election Survey conducted by Business New Zealand reveals that NZ capital gains tax 2026 has become one of the most divisive policy questions facing the business community heading into the election. Forty-six percent of businesses surveyed support a capital gains tax, 45.7 percent oppose it, and just over 8 percent are unsure, a near-perfect split that reflects how genuinely contested the debate has become. The survey also captured business sentiment across tax, energy, infrastructure, and economic confidence, with the consistent theme being a desire for stability, certainty, and long-term planning over short-term political fixes.
Key Insights
- 46% of businesses support a capital gains tax; 45.7% oppose it; 8%+ are unsure
- 62% want no change to personal income tax; 57% want no cuts to corporate tax; 65% oppose a wealth tax
- 89% support making KiwiSaver contributions compulsory for employers
- 66% support raising the superannuation entitlement age, most commonly to 67
- 80% are worried about future energy prices; 61% say the government is not doing enough on electricity supply barriers
- 95% back a bipartisan approach to 20 to 30-year infrastructure planning and funding
- 47% say regulatory changes over the past three years have increased the cost of doing business
- Only 25% say the government’s Investment Boost accelerated depreciation scheme has positively influenced their investment decisions; 47% say it has not
Our Thoughts
The NZ capital gains tax 2026 debate has arrived at one of those rare moments where the data genuinely reflects a community that has not made up its mind. A 46 to 45.7 percent split among hundreds of businesses, both large and small, is not a result that allows anyone to claim the business community is firmly against or firmly for a capital gains tax. It is a result that demands a more nuanced conversation than the one that typically happens in election year media coverage, where every policy gets forced into a binary win-or-loss frame.
The case for a capital gains tax rests on a fiscal argument that has been building for years. New Zealand runs a narrower tax base than most comparable OECD economies, relying heavily on income and consumption taxes while leaving capital gains largely untouched. In an environment of elevated government spending, rising debt, and long-term fiscal pressure, broadening the tax base through a capital gains tax is a structurally logical response. Nearly half of the business community surveyed appears to accept that logic, or at least does not reject it outright.
The case against is equally coherent. A capital gains tax in the New Zealand context would inevitably touch business owners who have built wealth through their enterprises over decades, farmers who have held land through multiple cycles, and property investors whose retirement planning has been structured around an expectation that gains would not be taxed. The compliance complexity and the behavioural distortions a poorly designed capital gains tax can introduce are legitimate concerns, and the 45.7 percent of businesses opposing it are not simply being self-interested. Many are making a considered argument about investment incentives and the risk of driving capital offshore or into less productive assets.
What is striking about the NZ capital gains tax 2026 survey is how clearly it shows that the capital gains question is not the dominant issue for the business community. The number that stands out most is 95 percent: nearly all businesses surveyed back a bipartisan approach to 20 to 30-year infrastructure planning. That is not a policy split. That is a consensus demand for the kind of long-term certainty that infrastructure investment requires and that election cycles consistently undermine. Katherine Rich’s summary of what business actually wants – confidence the economy will keep growing, certainty that tax settings will not be pulled out from under them, and follow-through on infrastructure plans – is a more accurate description of the business community’s priorities than any single debate about a capital gains tax.
The energy figures are the other story hiding inside this survey. Eighty percent of businesses are worried about future energy prices. More than 61 percent believe the government is not doing enough to reduce regulatory barriers to electricity supply. In an environment where electricity is increasingly central to both commercial operations and the broader decarbonisation agenda, this level of concern from the business community is a significant signal to any incoming government. The Investment Boost scheme’s failure to influence investment decisions for nearly half of respondents is also worth noting: a tax incentive that does not change behaviour is a cost without a return.
For business owners navigating the election period, the survey’s clearest practical message is that the business community is broadly aligned on what it needs: stability, long-term certainty, and policy that does not lurch dramatically between governments. Whatever your view on a capital gains tax, the 95 percent infrastructure consensus and the 80 percent energy concern tell you that the conversation most likely to determine your business’s operating environment over the next decade is less about what tax you might pay on future gains and more about whether the country can build the infrastructure and energy systems that make productive investment worthwhile in the first place.
Our Questions for You
- The NZ capital gains tax survey is almost perfectly split at 46 to 45.7 percent. Does that surprise you, and where do you sit personally — and has your view shifted at all as the fiscal pressures on the government have become more visible?
- Ninety-five percent of businesses back a bipartisan approach to long-term infrastructure planning. Given that this level of consensus is almost never seen on any other policy question, why do you think it has not translated into the kind of cross-party commitment business is asking for?
- Only 25 percent of businesses say the government’s Investment Boost accelerated depreciation scheme has positively influenced their investment decisions, against 47 percent who say it has not. If a major tax incentive is not changing behaviour for nearly half of businesses, what would actually move the needle on your own investment decisions?
